In November 2024 the US will be voting their new president. At the moment, Donald Trump
is ahead of President Joe Biden, despite the many lawsuits and criminal prosecutions. It
seems as if they have strengthened him even more. For decades the Democrats received
support from black and Hispanic voters but this has changed now and if Trump wins then
Democracy is in trouble.
Trump has claimed that he won the election in 2020 but this was a lie: he was trying to
manipulate and intimidate the country. America also faces growing hostility abroad,
challenged by Russia in Ukraine, by Iran in the Middle East and by China. Those three
countries want a new international order in which autocrats are secure.
If Trump gets elected he will probably be more organised than during his first term and
place all his supporters in important positions. He will probably be even more protectionist
economically and make extravagant deals.
The greatest threat Trump poses is to his own country. Since no lawsuit could bring him
down he must be affirmed that he is above the law. He will even go against the courts if
they stand in his way.
A Trump victory would also have a strong effect abroad. China would be happy to talk about
the evidence that American democracy is dysfunctional. If Trump neglects civil rights in the
United States, he can no longer proclaim them abroad. The global south and other countries
would call America hypocritical.
Mr Trump’s protectionism would increase. He would increase the taxes on imports and
prices for Americans would go up. He would cut taxes for Americans but America has huge
budget deficits already.
Abroad, Trump has threatened to end the Ukraine war in a day and to wreck NATO, perhaps
by refusing to treat an attack on one member as an attack on all. In the Middle East, Trump
is likely to back Israel without reserve, however much that causes conflict in the region. In
Asia he may be open to doing a deal with China’s president, Xi Jinping, to abandon Taiwan
because he cannot see why America would go to war with a nuclear-armed superpower to
benefit a tiny island.
Knowing that America would abandon Europe, Putin would continue fighting in Ukraine
and perhaps attack former Soviet countries such as Moldova or the Baltic states. Without
American pressure, Israel is unlikely to do peace talks with the Palestinians. Knowing that
Trump might no longer help them, Japan and South Korea could acquire nuclear weapons.
By saying that America has no global responsibility to help with climate change, Trump
would not help to slow it.
If Trump wins then his plans would encounter less resistance. And because America will
have voted him in while knowing the worst, its moral authority would decline. The election
will be decided by only a few thousand voters in just a handful of states. In 2024 the fate of
the world will depend on them.